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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-22T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-22T23:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45262/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, also W in STEREO A COR2 after a data gap ends at 2026-03-23T03:38Z. The source is a wide eruption from AR 14392 (S17W65), associated with a C1.5 flare peaking at 2026-03-22T23:09Z as observed in GOES SUVI 131. A small filament eruption near AR 14392 begins at 2026-03-22T22:50Z in GOES SUVI 304, setting off a wider rising and breaking of field lines over AR 14392 and likely extending around the west limb, starting around 2026-03-22T23:34Z in GOES SUVI 171/195/284. This is followed by a post-eruptive arcade over AR 14392 observed in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-26T07:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.
Lead Time: 7.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-03-25T23:18Z
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